Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (50%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 50¢ · $3K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$3.2K
$667.12
25.7¢ → 49.9¢
+94% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
187h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
5 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ST StonktraderCTR | Noavg 25.1¢ | $779.45 | $1.5K | +$752.14 | 74% 158-55 (213) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 52.9¢ | $1.6K | $1.4K | -$30.8 | 33% 273-556 (829) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 50.7¢ | $662.63 | $697.57 | -$0.02 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 52.9¢ | $691.62 | $660.93 | -$30.79 | |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Yesavg 70.6¢ | $172.45 | $170.99 | -$1.47 | 36% 14550-25983 (40533) |
 funnyday | Yesavg 73.7¢ | $221 | $151.79 | -$83.9 | 50% 3891-3868 (7759) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Noavg 52.8¢ | $31.7 | $32.04 | +$0.34 | 42% 5172-7103 (12275) |
Invested
$779.45
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$752.14
Record
74%
158-55 (213)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$1,555.85
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$30.8
Record
33%
273-556 (829)
Both legs:
Invested
$172.45
Value
$170.99
PnL
-$1.47
Record
36%
14550-25983 (40533)
funnydayInvested
$221
Value
$151.79
PnL
-$83.9
Record
50%
3891-3868 (7759)
Invested
$31.7
Value
$32.04
PnL
+$0.34
Record
42%
5172-7103 (12275)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.