Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (58%). 1 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% before 2027?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 42¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
-$2.03
Research grade
NeutralNo at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 55.3¢ | $939.4 | $873.01 | -$64.77 | 32% 273-593 (866) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 55.3¢ | $497.95 | $522.01 | +$24.08 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 48.9¢ | $439.83 | $351 | -$88.85 | |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 39.7¢ | $115.06 | $116.73 | +$1.67 | 36% 14582-26244 (40826) |
SE SeniorLaghetto | Yesavg 60.5¢ | $127.1 | $75.4 | -$3.7 | 70% 399-175 (574) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.