Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% before 2027?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 81¢ · $3K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$3.1K
$118.74
88¢ → 81¢
-8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 88¢ | $2.6K | $2.7K | +$105 | 48% 1228-1315 (2543) |
 Haradwaith | Noavg 87¢ | $174 | $183 | +$9 | 53% 40-36 (76) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 89.1¢ | $111.84 | $114.96 | +$3.12 | 41% 3119-4481 (7600) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $43.5 | $45.75 | +$2.25 | 4% 1-27 (28) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $4.2 | $3.57 | -$0.63 | 39% 1053-1631 (2684) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$2,639.99
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$105
Record
48%
1228-1315 (2543)
HaradwaithInvested
$174
Value
$183
PnL
+$9
Record
53%
40-36 (76)
Invested
$111.84
Value
$114.96
PnL
+$3.12
Record
41%
3119-4481 (7600)
Invested
$43.5
Value
$45.75
PnL
+$2.25
Record
4%
1-27 (28)
Invested
$4.2
Value
$3.57
PnL
-$0.63
Record
39%
1053-1631 (2684)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.