Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.15% before 2027?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 54¢ · $655 held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$654.75
-$219.16
74.5¢ → 54¢
-27% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 79¢ | $376.08 | $260.22 | -$115.86 | 57% 15198-11650 (26848) |
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 75.5¢ | $302 | $220 | -$82 | 73% 2903-1056 (3959) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 65¢ | $173.54 | $147.33 | -$26.2 | 36% 14577-26206 (40783) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 46.3¢ | $22.29 | $27.19 | +$4.9 | 18% 3771-16734 (20505) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$376.08
Value
$260.22
PnL
-$115.86
Record
57%
15198-11650 (26848)
Tenebrus7Invested
$302
Value
$220
PnL
-$82
Record
73%
2903-1056 (3959)
Invested
$173.54
Value
$147.33
PnL
-$26.2
Record
36%
14577-26206 (40783)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$22.29
Value
$27.19
PnL
+$4.9
Record
18%
3771-16734 (20505)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.