Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.08% in November?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 96¢ · $249 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$248.54
-$8.48
87.2¢ → 95.5¢
+9% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GA Gaditima | Noavg 86¢ | $215.03 | $215.03 | +$0 | 47% 67-76 (143) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $38.25 | $31.51 | -$6.73 | 23% 80-263 (343) |
HI hithitfarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.7¢ | $1.67 | $0.98 | -$0.69 | — 1-0 (1) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $1.98 | $0.66 | -$1.32 | 41% 3022-4424 (7446) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $0.09 | $0.35 | +$0.26 | 15% 13-72 (85) |
Invested
$215.03
Value
$215.03
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
67-76 (143)
Invested
$38.25
Value
$31.51
PnL
-$6.73
Record
23%
80-263 (343)
Invested
$1.67
Value
$0.98
PnL
-$0.69
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Invested
$1.98
Value
$0.66
PnL
-$1.32
Record
41%
3022-4424 (7446)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.09
Value
$0.35
PnL
+$0.26
Record
15%
13-72 (85)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.