Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (57%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 43¢ · $847 held · ends Apr 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$847.13
-$171.19
Research grade
NeutralNo at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR | Noavg 36.5¢ | $727 | $537.55 | -$189.45 | — 4-15 (19) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Yesavg 69.2¢ | $196.41 | $207.28 | +$10.88 | 41% 3119-4481 (7600) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Yesavg 66¢ | $52.79 | $58.39 | +$5.6 | 53% 40-36 (76) |
KL klli27<$100 | Yesavg 71¢ | $36.24 | $29.31 | -$1.42 | 27% 499-1349 (1848) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100 | Yesavg 57¢ | $11.4 | $14.6 | +$3.2 | 24% 82-266 (348) |
Invested
$727
Value
$537.55
PnL
-$189.45
Record
—
4-15 (19)
Invested
$196.41
Value
$207.28
PnL
+$10.88
Record
41%
3119-4481 (7600)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$52.79
Value
$58.39
PnL
+$5.6
Record
53%
40-36 (76)
Invested
$36.24
Value
$29.31
PnL
-$1.42
Record
27%
499-1349 (1848)
Invested
$11.4
Value
$14.6
PnL
+$3.2
Record
24%
82-266 (348)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.