Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.38% in November?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 87¢ · $171 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$170.58
-$7.11
78.1¢ → 87¢
+11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 dips. | Noavg 77.7¢ | $97.88 | $109.62 | +$11.74 | 41% 195-276 (471) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 72.3¢ | $21.7 | $26.1 | +$4.4 | 52% 5344-4847 (10191) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29.1¢ | $41.01 | $18.33 | -$22.68 | 41% 3022-4424 (7446) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $17.1 | $16.53 | -$0.57 | 39% 1049-1630 (2679) |
dips.Invested
$97.88
Value
$109.62
PnL
+$11.74
Record
41%
195-276 (471)
Invested
$21.7
Value
$26.1
PnL
+$4.4
Record
52%
5344-4847 (10191)
Invested
$41.01
Value
$18.33
PnL
-$22.68
Record
41%
3022-4424 (7446)
Invested
$17.1
Value
$16.53
PnL
-$0.57
Record
39%
1049-1630 (2679)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.