Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.73% in November?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 88¢ · $218 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$217.84
-$13.42
87.1¢ → 87.5¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GA Gaditima | Noavg 87.2¢ | $174.3 | $176 | +$1.7 | 47% 71-79 (150) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 38¢ | $39.92 | $24.99 | -$14.94 | 41% 3040-4429 (7469) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $10.1 | $9.9 | -$0.2 | — 0-12 (12) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.5¢ | $3.85 | $4.86 | +$1.01 | 23% 80-263 (343) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $3 | $2 | -$1 | — 1-9 (10) |
Invested
$174.3
Value
$176
PnL
+$1.7
Record
47%
71-79 (150)
Invested
$39.92
Value
$24.99
PnL
-$14.94
Record
41%
3040-4429 (7469)
Invested
$10.1
Value
$9.9
PnL
-$0.2
Record
—
0-12 (12)
Invested
$3.85
Value
$4.86
PnL
+$1.01
Record
23%
80-263 (343)
Invested
$3
Value
$2
PnL
-$1
Record
—
1-9 (10)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.