Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.7% before 2027?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 70¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.5K
-$101.85
81.8¢ → 69.5¢
-15% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+50 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Late
259h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 83.5¢ | $793.25 | $646 | -$147.25 | 56% 15238-11764 (27002) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $1.0K | $622.57 | -$35.81 | 36% 14842-26964 (41806) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 72¢ | $452.31 | $427.18 | -$108.09 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 29¢ | $202.32 | $195.38 | +$72.29 | |
ST StonktraderCTR | Yesavg 21.2¢ | $135.46 | $175.98 | +$40.52 | 75% 163-55 (218) |
SB sbimbg<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $38.8 | $37.69 | +$1.39 | 70% 3133-1349 (4482) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $31.5 | $34 | +$3.5 | 42% 5193-7116 (12309) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$793.25
Value
$646
PnL
-$147.25
Record
56%
15238-11764 (27002)
Invested
$1,035.54
Value
$622.57
PnL
-$35.81
Record
36%
14842-26964 (41806)
Both legs:
Invested
$135.46
Value
$175.98
PnL
+$40.52
Record
75%
163-55 (218)
Invested
$38.8
Value
$37.69
PnL
+$1.39
Record
70%
3133-1349 (4482)
Invested
$31.5
Value
$34
PnL
+$3.5
Record
42%
5193-7116 (12309)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.