Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be at least 3.0%?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 55¢ · $1K held · ends Feb 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
2 arb excluded
$1.2K
-$49.55
47.9¢ → 54.5¢
+14% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Yesavg 52.7¢ | $1.4K | $780.9 | +$120.24 | 36% 15264-27350 (42614) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 52.7¢ | $432.68 | $574.86 | +$122.26 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 40.5¢ | $278.33 | $206.04 | -$2.02 | |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 61.4¢ | $305.79 | $228.74 | -$9.19 | 21% 295-1102 (1397) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 61.4¢ | $140.51 | $160.11 | +$8.79 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 37.8¢ | $86.58 | $68.62 | -$17.98 | |
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Noavg 48.5¢ | $177.51 | $109.8 | -$67.72 | 53% 1128-1012 (2140) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Yesavg 60.4¢ | $72.36 | $83.8 | +$11.44 | 42% 5209-7140 (12349) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 44.8¢ | $31.54 | $38.26 | +$6.72 | 53% 6464-5663 (12127) |
Invested
$1,421.52
Value
$780.9
PnL
+$120.24
Record
36%
15264-27350 (42614)
Both legs:
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$305.79
Value
$228.74
PnL
-$9.19
Record
21%
295-1102 (1397)
Both legs:
Invested
$177.51
Value
$109.8
PnL
-$67.72
Record
53%
1128-1012 (2140)
Invested
$72.36
Value
$83.8
PnL
+$11.44
Record
42%
5209-7140 (12349)
Invested
$31.54
Value
$38.26
PnL
+$6.72
Record
53%
6464-5663 (12127)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.