Will Thailand win the public vote for Eurovision Asia 2026?
11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 99¢ · $232 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 92%
$231.62
-$8.49
99.7¢ → 99.3¢
+0% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $39.87 | $37.68 | -$2.19 | 27% 1021-2711 (3732) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $39.87 | $37.67 | -$2.2 | 43% 5075-6626 (11701) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $29.79 | $29.91 | +$0.12 | 35% 251-467 (718) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $25.92 | $25.53 | -$0.39 | 26% 692-1921 (2613) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $68.14 | $19.84 | -$1.53 | 36% 3768-6825 (10593) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $19.66 | $19.54 | -$0.12 | 51% 773-729 (1502) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $19.94 | $19.47 | -$0.47 | 53% 7051-6190 (13241) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $18.89 | $16.75 | -$2.14 | 39% 3645-5777 (9422) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $10.32 | $10.25 | -$0.07 | 58% 726-520 (1246) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $6.99 | $7 | +$0 | 30% 243-579 (822) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $6.86 | $6.82 | -$0.04 | 50% 723-711 (1434) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $0.63 | $1.17 | +$0.54 | 32% 168-365 (533) |
Invested
$39.87
Value
$37.68
PnL
-$2.19
Record
27%
1021-2711 (3732)
balthazar<$100Invested
$39.87
Value
$37.67
PnL
-$2.2
Record
43%
5075-6626 (11701)
Invested
$29.79
Value
$29.91
PnL
+$0.12
Record
35%
251-467 (718)
Invested
$25.92
Value
$25.53
PnL
-$0.39
Record
26%
692-1921 (2613)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$68.14
Value
$19.84
PnL
-$1.53
Record
36%
3768-6825 (10593)
Invested
$19.66
Value
$19.54
PnL
-$0.12
Record
51%
773-729 (1502)
Invested
$19.94
Value
$19.47
PnL
-$0.47
Record
53%
7051-6190 (13241)
Invested
$18.89
Value
$16.75
PnL
-$2.14
Record
39%
3645-5777 (9422)
Invested
$10.32
Value
$10.25
PnL
-$0.07
Record
58%
726-520 (1246)
Invested
$6.99
Value
$7
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
243-579 (822)
Invested
$6.86
Value
$6.82
PnL
-$0.04
Record
50%
723-711 (1434)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$0.63
Value
$1.17
PnL
+$0.54
Record
32%
168-365 (533)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
graynotebook19
No — $37.68
balthazar
No — $37.67
god83743894
No — $29.91
luciebot
No — $25.53
Lucerys
No — $19.84
0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702
No — $19.54
cigarettes
No — $19.47
xtxpleasecallme
No — $16.75
0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493
No — $10.25
smallreceipt
No — $7