Will Thailand win Eurovision Asia 2026?
7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 99¢ · $265 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 64%
$265.2
-$4.38
96.1¢ → 98.6¢
+3% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-6 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 57%
Freshness
Mature
25h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 96.3¢ | $111.47 | $111.1 | -$0.37 | 53% 6618-5816 (12434) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $28.8 | $28.8 | -$0 | 31% 221-498 (719) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $28.8 | $28.8 | -$0 | 27% 197-540 (737) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $28.8 | $28.8 | -$0 | 30% 989-2362 (3351) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $24 | $24 | +$0 | 27% 973-2599 (3572) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $19.26 | $19.75 | +$0.49 | 25% 91-280 (371) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $15.49 | $12.15 | -$3.35 | 39% 3479-5356 (8835) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $29.87 | $4.9 | -$1.13 | 36% 3613-6424 (10037) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $4.8 | $4.8 | +$0 | 37% 165-281 (446) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $2.62 | $1.7 | +$0.08 | 30% 108-251 (359) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $0.5 | $0.39 | -$0.11 | 45% 4955-6107 (11062) |
Invested
$111.47
Value
$111.1
PnL
-$0.37
Record
53%
6618-5816 (12434)
Invested
$28.8
Value
$28.8
PnL
-$0
Record
31%
221-498 (719)
Invested
$28.8
Value
$28.8
PnL
-$0
Record
27%
197-540 (737)
Invested
$28.8
Value
$28.8
PnL
-$0
Record
30%
989-2362 (3351)
Invested
$24
Value
$24
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
973-2599 (3572)
Invested
$19.26
Value
$19.75
PnL
+$0.49
Record
25%
91-280 (371)
Invested
$15.49
Value
$12.15
PnL
-$3.35
Record
39%
3479-5356 (8835)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$29.87
Value
$4.9
PnL
-$1.13
Record
36%
3613-6424 (10037)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$4.8
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
165-281 (446)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$2.62
Value
$1.7
PnL
+$0.08
Record
30%
108-251 (359)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$0.5
Value
$0.39
PnL
-$0.11
Record
45%
4955-6107 (11062)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
cigarettes
No — $111.1
godblessme2026
No — $28.8
smallreceipt
No — $28.8
mildwindow27
No — $28.8
graynotebook19
No — $24
0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73
No — $19.75
xtxpleasecallme
CTRYes — $12.15
Lucerys
CTRYes — $4.9
0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271
No — $4.8
Haradwaith
CTRYes — $1.7