Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 14 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

14 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.02

Combined PnL

-$67.18

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 14 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes14 traders

Total Value$1.02

Total Shares2,046

Combined PnL-$67.18

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$26.61	$0.4	-$26.21	40% 3240-4885 (8125)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$8.9	$0.13	-$8.77	47% 4815-5470 (10285)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$8.31	$0.12	-$8.19	18% 81-367 (448)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$7.2	$0.11	-$7.09	43% 2574-3395 (5969)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$6.13	$0.09	-$6.04	39% 63-100 (163)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$4.67	$0.07	-$4.6	30% 2950-6939 (9889)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$1.67	$0.03	-$1.64	40% 1474-2198 (3672)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$1.29	$0.02	-$1.27	37% 3456-5935 (9391)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$1	$0.02	-$0.99	17% 92-449 (541)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$0.7	$0.01	-$0.69	11% 6-50 (56)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$0.68	$0.01	-$0.67	39% 1397-2224 (3621)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$0.4	$0.01	-$0.39	35% 522-987 (1509)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$0.33	$0.01	-$0.33	9% 3-29 (32)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$0.31	$0	-$0.3	19% 816-3584 (4400)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.61

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$26.21

Record

40%

3240-4885 (8125)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.9

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$8.77

Record

47%

4815-5470 (10285)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.31

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$8.19

Record

18%

81-367 (448)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.2

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$7.09

Record

43%

2574-3395 (5969)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.13

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$6.04

Record

39%

63-100 (163)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.67

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$4.6

Record

30%

2950-6939 (9889)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.67

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.64

Record

40%

1474-2198 (3672)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.29

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.27

Record

37%

3456-5935 (9391)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.99

Record

17%

92-449 (541)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.7

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.69

Record

11%

6-50 (56)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.68

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.67

Record

39%

1397-2224 (3621)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.39

Record

35%

522-987 (1509)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.33

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.33

Record

3-29 (32)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.31

Value

PnL

-$0.3

Record

19%

816-3584 (4400)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 14 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.