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4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $50 held · ends Dec 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$49.81
$3.45
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Late
204h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 91.2¢ | $18.24 | $19.43 | +$1.19 | 53% 5671-5100 (10771) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 91.6¢ | $14.07 | $14.92 | +$0.85 | 41% 3122-4487 (7609) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 88.2¢ | $8.15 | $8.97 | +$0.83 | 51% 4655-4529 (9184) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $5.56 | $6.13 | +$0.58 | 17% 76-374 (450) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $0.35 | $0.35 | +$0 | 51% 40-38 (78) |
Invested
$18.24
Value
$19.43
PnL
+$1.19
Record
53%
5671-5100 (10771)
Invested
$14.07
Value
$14.92
PnL
+$0.85
Record
41%
3122-4487 (7609)
balthazar<$100Invested
$8.15
Value
$8.97
PnL
+$0.83
Record
51%
4655-4529 (9184)
Invested
$5.56
Value
$6.13
PnL
+$0.58
Record
17%
76-374 (450)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$0.35
Value
$0.35
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
40-38 (78)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.