Will Tencent be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 98¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$3.7K
-$19.1
99.9¢ → 97.8¢
-2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 noreasapa | Noavg 99.9¢ | $3.2K | $3.2K | -$14.32 | 91% 3581-335 (3916) |
KO korda77 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $191 | $189.27 | -$1.72 | 52% 4970-4612 (9582) |
ME merod | Noavg 99.8¢ | $184.63 | $182.78 | -$1.85 | 52% 2463-2294 (4757) |
ZX zxc368 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $149.85 | $148.13 | -$1.72 | 98% 13071-207 (13278) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $21.81 | $21.3 | -$0.51 | 32% 4438-9527 (13965) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $19.84 | $19.76 | -$0.08 | 61% 21131-13457 (34588) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $4.51 | $3.36 | -$1.15 | 18% 3806-17232 (21038) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $7.9 | $2.92 | +$2.27 | 36% 15617-27548 (43165) |
noreasapaInvested
$3,179.78
Value
$3.2K
PnL
-$14.32
Record
91%
3581-335 (3916)
Invested
$191
Value
$189.27
PnL
-$1.72
Record
52%
4970-4612 (9582)
Invested
$184.63
Value
$182.78
PnL
-$1.85
Record
52%
2463-2294 (4757)
Invested
$149.85
Value
$148.13
PnL
-$1.72
Record
98%
13071-207 (13278)
Invested
$21.81
Value
$21.3
PnL
-$0.51
Record
32%
4438-9527 (13965)
balthazar<$100Invested
$19.84
Value
$19.76
PnL
-$0.08
Record
61%
21131-13457 (34588)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$4.51
Value
$3.36
PnL
-$1.15
Record
18%
3806-17232 (21038)
Invested
$7.9
Value
$2.92
PnL
+$2.27
Record
36%
15617-27548 (43165)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.