Will Tencent be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 88¢ · $216 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$215.97
-$31.75
97.2¢ → 88.3¢
-9% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 61%
Freshness
Mature
19h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98.2¢ | $78.56 | $67.74 | -$10.82 | 51% 4654-4528 (9182) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $73.5 | $63.53 | -$9.97 | 40% 1456-2158 (3614) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $33.48 | $28.8 | -$4.68 | 24% 77-243 (320) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $29.52 | $25.41 | -$4.11 | 17% 76-374 (450) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 84.7¢ | $16.94 | $16.94 | +$0 | 41% 3118-4481 (7599) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $15.72 | $13.55 | -$2.17 | 39% 1297-2005 (3302) |
balthazar<$100Invested
$78.56
Value
$67.74
PnL
-$10.82
Record
51%
4654-4528 (9182)
Invested
$73.5
Value
$63.53
PnL
-$9.97
Record
40%
1456-2158 (3614)
Invested
$33.48
Value
$28.8
PnL
-$4.68
Record
24%
77-243 (320)
Invested
$29.52
Value
$25.41
PnL
-$4.11
Record
17%
76-374 (450)
Invested
$16.94
Value
$16.94
PnL
+$0
Record
41%
3118-4481 (7599)
Invested
$15.72
Value
$13.55
PnL
-$2.17
Record
39%
1297-2005 (3302)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.