Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (90%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Tampa Bay Lightning be the 2027 NHL Eastern Conference Champion?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 11¢ · $774 held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

Total Value

$773.72

Combined PnL

-$2.89

Smart Money Entry

13¢ → 10.5¢

-19% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 90%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$731.96

Total Shares5,630

Combined PnL-$3.65

No2 traders

Total Value$41.76

Total Shares48

Combined PnL+$0.76

Yes — 71%No — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

35h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Yesavg 13¢	$699.97	$700.32	+$0.34	52% 5948-5557 (11505)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 85¢	$32.3	$33.06	+$0.76	49% 8836-9340 (18176)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$20.22	$20.22	-$3.89	55% 3141-2524 (5665)
DO donthackme<$100	Noavg 87¢	$8.7	$8.7	+$0	73% 12861-4791 (17652)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.4¢	$6.7	$6.5	-$0.2	35% 18146-33983 (52129)
ND ndb1CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$2	$2.6	+$0.1	66% 938-493 (1431)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$2.32	$2.32	+$0	58% 19455-14308 (33763)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Yes

Invested

$699.97

Value

$700.32

PnL

+$0.34

Record

52%

5948-5557 (11505)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$32.3

Value

$33.06

PnL

+$0.76

Record

49%

8836-9340 (18176)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.22

Value

$20.22

PnL

-$3.89

Record

55%

3141-2524 (5665)

donthackme<$100

Invested

$8.7

Value

$8.7

PnL

+$0

Record

73%

12861-4791 (17652)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.7

Value

$6.5

PnL

-$0.2

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

ndb1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0.1

Record

66%

938-493 (1431)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.32

Value

$2.32

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

19455-14308 (33763)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 90%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

35h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance12.0%

10.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$732.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

832.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.