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5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 99¢ · $346 held · ends Nov 18

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$346.22

Combined PnL

$37.9

Smart Money Entry

88.3¢ → 99.1¢

+12% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$344.87

Total Shares345

Combined PnL+$40.18

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.35

Total Shares142

Combined PnL-$2.28

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA Gaditima	Noavg 76.9¢	$115.48	$150.07	+$34.59	49% 395-410 (805)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$84.92	$84.92	+$0	28% 1108-2781 (3889)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 97¢	$58.2	$59.94	+$1.74	42% 1702-2333 (4035)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 95¢	$28.5	$29.97	+$1.47	38% 323-524 (847)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 88¢	$17.6	$19.98	+$2.38	53% 7499-6626 (14125)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$32.8	$0.95	+$0.22	38% 3822-6251 (10073)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$1.8	$0.19	-$1.61	18% 37-169 (206)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$0.6	$0.11	-$0.49	47% 898-1015 (1913)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$0.5	$0.1	-$0.41	39% 334-532 (866)

Gaditima

Invested

$115.48

Value

$150.07

PnL

+$34.59

Record

49%

395-410 (805)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$84.92

Value

$84.92

PnL

+$0

Record

28%

1108-2781 (3889)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$58.2

Value

$59.94

PnL

+$1.74

Record

42%

1702-2333 (4035)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$28.5

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$1.47

Record

38%

323-524 (847)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$17.6

Value

$19.98

PnL

+$2.38

Record

53%

7499-6626 (14125)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.8

Value

$0.95

PnL

+$0.22

Record

38%

3822-6251 (10073)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.8

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$1.61

Record

18%

37-169 (206)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$0.49

Record

47%

898-1015 (1913)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.5

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$0.41

Record

39%

334-532 (866)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.