Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will "Sweet Action II - Jack Harlow" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 21?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $222 held · ends Nov 17

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$221.77

Combined PnL

-$136.6

Smart Money Entry

6.7¢ → 0.1¢

-99% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$220.76

Total Shares221

Combined PnL+$0.01

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.01

Total Shares2,024

Combined PnL-$136.61

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

43h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$84.28	$84.28	+$0	39% 349-547 (896)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$74.9	$74.92	+$0.01	53% 7633-6716 (14349)
TY Tysha<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$31.6	$31.6	+$0	28% 48-125 (173)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.97	+$0	30% 1197-2740 (3937)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.7¢	$70.55	$0.53	-$70.02	42% 5258-7339 (12597)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.7¢	$61.47	$0.46	-$61.01	40% 2691-4022 (6713)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.7¢	$50.64	$0.02	-$3.02	38% 3892-6366 (10258)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.7¢	$0.61	$0	-$0.61	16% 31-164 (195)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.7¢	$25.28	$0	-$1.95	23% 821-2761 (3582)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$84.28

Value

$84.28

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

349-547 (896)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$74.9

Value

$74.92

PnL

+$0.01

Record

53%

7633-6716 (14349)

Tysha<$100

Invested

$31.6

Value

$31.6

PnL

+$0

Record

28%

48-125 (173)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

1197-2740 (3937)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.55

Value

$0.53

PnL

-$70.02

Record

42%

5258-7339 (12597)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.47

Value

$0.46

PnL

-$61.01

Record

40%

2691-4022 (6713)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.64

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.02

Record

38%

3892-6366 (10258)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.61

Value

PnL

-$0.61

Record

16%

31-164 (195)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.28

Value

PnL

-$1.95

Record

23%

821-2761 (3582)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

43h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.