Will Stranger Things be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 68¢ · $100 held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$99.57
-$2.54
Research grade
NeutralNo at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 71.4¢ | $35.7 | $34.03 | -$1.68 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 67.4¢ | $30.17 | $30.47 | +$0.31 | 41% 3094-4459 (7553) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $21.3 | $20.42 | -$0.89 | 12% 52-372 (424) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $10.9 | $10.88 | -$0.02 | 39% 1052-1631 (2683) |
AU auros2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.2¢ | $4.04 | $3.78 | -$0.27 | 84% 62-12 (74) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$35.7
Value
$34.03
PnL
-$1.68
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
Invested
$30.17
Value
$30.47
PnL
+$0.31
Record
41%
3094-4459 (7553)
Invested
$21.3
Value
$20.42
PnL
-$0.89
Record
12%
52-372 (424)
Invested
$10.9
Value
$10.88
PnL
-$0.02
Record
39%
1052-1631 (2683)
Invested
$4.04
Value
$3.78
PnL
-$0.27
Record
84%
62-12 (74)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.