Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will St. John's win the 2027 NCAA Men's Basketball National Championship?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 0.9¢ · $49 held · ends Apr 20, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Apr 20, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$48.56

Combined PnL

-$8.37

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$36.2

Total Shares40

Combined PnL-$3.52

Yes8 traders

Total Value$12.36

Total Shares2,061

Combined PnL-$4.85

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$39.72	$36.2	-$3.52	42% 1672-2310 (3982)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$14.55	$10.72	-$3.83	39% 1109-1746 (2855)
LucerysCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$182.61	$0.58	-$0.98	35% 3870-7164 (11034)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.37	$0.27	-$0.1	17% 95-455 (550)
AU auros2CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.11	$0.24	+$0.13	58% 93-66 (159)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.25	$0.18	-$0.07	38% 3782-6154 (9936)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.04	$0.13	+$0.09	14% 98-588 (686)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.17	$0.12	-$0.05	52% 2230-2031 (4261)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.16	$0.12	-$0.04	29% 270-666 (936)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$39.72

Value

$36.2

PnL

-$3.52

Record

42%

1672-2310 (3982)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.55

Value

$10.72

PnL

-$3.83

Record

39%

1109-1746 (2855)

LucerysCTR

Yes

Invested

$182.61

Value

$0.58

PnL

-$0.98

Record

35%

3870-7164 (11034)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.37

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$0.1

Record

17%

95-455 (550)

auros2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.11

Value

$0.24

PnL

+$0.13

Record

58%

93-66 (159)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.25

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$0.07

Record

38%

3782-6154 (9936)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.13

PnL

+$0.09

Record

14%

98-588 (686)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.17

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

2230-2031 (4261)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$0.04

Record

29%

270-666 (936)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.0%

0.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4788.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

4888.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.