Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (59%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 42¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$1.2K
-$261.27
48.9¢ → 41.5¢
-15% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CarCTR | Yesavg 48.7¢ | $676.67 | $612.62 | -$64.05 | 67% 4139-2001 (6140) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR | Yesavg 52.4¢ | $524 | $315 | -$169 | 56% 15247-11773 (27020) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 51.3¢ | $155.19 | $152.34 | -$2.85 | 36% 14999-27063 (42062) |
 Tenebrus7CTR<$100 | Yesavg 39.5¢ | $71 | $63 | -$8 | 73% 2907-1060 (3967) |
 smellyEllieCTR<$100 | Yesavg 41.4¢ | $72.5 | $55.12 | -$17.38 | 50% 937-950 (1887) |
CarCTRInvested
$676.67
Value
$612.62
PnL
-$64.05
Record
67%
4139-2001 (6140)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTRInvested
$524
Value
$315
PnL
-$169
Record
56%
15247-11773 (27020)
Invested
$155.19
Value
$152.34
PnL
-$2.85
Record
36%
14999-27063 (42062)
Tenebrus7CTR<$100Invested
$71
Value
$63
PnL
-$8
Record
73%
2907-1060 (3967)
smellyEllieCTR<$100Invested
$72.5
Value
$55.12
PnL
-$17.38
Record
50%
937-950 (1887)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.