Will Steve Hilton win Fresno County in the California governor race in 2026?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 59¢ · $939 held · ended Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
2 arb excluded
$938.6
$19.77
47¢ → 59¢
+26% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Mature
38h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
6 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 33.5¢ | $955.2 | $555.87 | +$164.32 | 35% 17899-33380 (51279) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 33.5¢ | $223.47 | $393.31 | +$240.35 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 55¢ | $218.27 | $162.56 | -$76.03 | |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 40.3¢ | $331.57 | $282.62 | -$3.38 | 15% 435-2472 (2907) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 40.3¢ | $172.56 | $158.29 | -$14.34 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 64.1¢ | $94.87 | $124.33 | +$10.95 | |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 52.6¢ | $63.4 | $66.6 | +$3.2 | 53% 22161-19289 (41450) |
RO rocky42019<$100 | Noavg 27.3¢ | $4.85 | $18.3 | +$13.45 | 42% 1842-2517 (4359) |
LP lpgb<$100 | Noavg 49.4¢ | $42.45 | $8.01 | -$7.54 | 26% 353-995 (1348) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $4.5 | $3.7 | -$0.8 | 49% 527-555 (1082) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $60.52 | $2.67 | -$14.33 | 17% 1105-5456 (6561) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yes | $16.88 | $0.84 | +$25.79 | 79% 12088-3268 (15356) |
Invested
$955.2
Value
$555.87
PnL
+$164.32
Record
35%
17899-33380 (51279)
Both legs:
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$331.57
Value
$282.62
PnL
-$3.38
Record
15%
435-2472 (2907)
Both legs:
Invested
$63.4
Value
$66.6
PnL
+$3.2
Record
53%
22161-19289 (41450)
Invested
$4.85
Value
$18.3
PnL
+$13.45
Record
42%
1842-2517 (4359)
Invested
$42.45
Value
$8.01
PnL
-$7.54
Record
26%
353-995 (1348)
Invested
$4.5
Value
$3.7
PnL
-$0.8
Record
49%
527-555 (1082)
Invested
$60.52
Value
$2.67
PnL
-$14.33
Record
17%
1105-5456 (6561)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$16.88
Value
$0.84
PnL
+$25.79
Record
79%
12088-3268 (15356)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.