Will Stephen Miller be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2029?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 99¢ · $49 held · ends Jan 1, 2029

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Mon, Jan 1, 2029View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$48.96

Combined PnL

-$0.39

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$48.94

Total Shares50

Combined PnL-$0.39

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.02

Total Shares1

Combined PnL+$0

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$29.82	$29.6	-$0.22	25% 806-2476 (3282)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$10.2	$10.11	-$0.09	4% 14-366 (380)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$7.96	$7.89	-$0.07	35% 2886-5323 (8209)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$1.35	$1.34	-$0.01	79% 159-42 (201)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.01	$0.02	+$0	40% 3002-4411 (7413)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$29.82

Value

$29.6

PnL

-$0.22

Record

25%

806-2476 (3282)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$10.2

Value

$10.11

PnL

-$0.09

Record

14-366 (380)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$7.96

Value

$7.89

PnL

-$0.07

Record

35%

2886-5323 (8209)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$1.35

Value

$1.34

PnL

-$0.01

Record

79%

159-42 (201)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.02

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

3002-4411 (7413)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.34

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.