Will StepFun have the best AI model on December 15, 2026?

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (22%) · No at 100¢ · $152 held · ends Dec 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Dec 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 22%

Total Value

$151.56

Combined PnL

-$22.27

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 99.8¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$146.25

Total Shares147

Combined PnL-$0.53

Yes7 traders

Total Value$5.31

Total Shares965

Combined PnL-$21.74

No — 22%Yes — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO god83743894	Noavg 99.9¢	$106.89	$106.47	-$0.43	35% 251-467 (718)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$39.88	$39.78	-$0.1	53% 7051-6190 (13241)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$19.08	$2.9	-$11.16	39% 3645-5777 (9422)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$28.24	$1.48	-$6.76	43% 5075-6626 (11701)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$1.54	$0.3	-$1.25	42% 2632-3661 (6293)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$1.11	$0.21	-$0.9	16% 24-123 (147)
iutwpfalCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$1	$0.19	-$0.81	— 12-4 (16)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$0.52	$0.11	-$0.41	32% 168-365 (533)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.57	$0.11	-$0.46	13% 22-150 (172)

god83743894

Invested

$106.89

Value

$106.47

PnL

-$0.43

Record

35%

251-467 (718)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$39.88

Value

$39.78

PnL

-$0.1

Record

53%

7051-6190 (13241)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.08

Value

$2.9

PnL

-$11.16

Record

39%

3645-5777 (9422)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.24

Value

$1.48

PnL

-$6.76

Record

43%

5075-6626 (11701)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.54

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$1.25

Record

42%

2632-3661 (6293)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.11

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$0.9

Record

16%

24-123 (147)

iutwpfalCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$0.81

Record

—

12-4 (16)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.52

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$0.41

Record

32%

168-365 (533)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.57

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$0.46

Record

13%

22-150 (172)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.