Will Spirit Win the PGL Major Singapore 2026?
14 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (93%) · No at 84¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
15
No 93%
$1.3K
-$0.3
83.8¢ → 83.5¢
+0% since entry · 14 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
14 of 15 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
14 traders
Top 2 hold 33%
Freshness
Late
83h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 33% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 83.9¢ | $224.89 | $225.29 | +$0.4 | 52% 5322-4827 (10149) |
WA WarriorH | Noavg 83¢ | $184.83 | $183.92 | -$0.91 | — 0-12 (12) |
QU quietparcel | Noavg 84¢ | $126 | $126 | +$0 | 10% 25-236 (261) |
LI Likaseent | Noavg 84¢ | $124.21 | $124.21 | +$0 | 26% 360-1007 (1367) |
KA kaxel78 | Noavg 84¢ | $124.21 | $124.21 | +$0 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
ZE zerone777 | Noavg 84¢ | $124.21 | $124.21 | +$0 | 30% 511-1182 (1693) |
VA Vale54holi<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $83.49 | $83.49 | +$0 | 28% 367-935 (1302) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $76.36 | $76.05 | -$0.3 | 41% 3010-4414 (7424) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $49.8 | $50.4 | +$0.6 | 39% 1397-2152 (3549) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $42 | $42 | +$0 | 44% 1068-1376 (2444) |
PO pollo07<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $42 | $42 | +$0 | 27% 499-1317 (1816) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $25.2 | $25.2 | +$0 | 5% 16-322 (338) |
VI VictorLudorum<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $25.2 | $25.2 | +$0 | — 0-13 (13) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $4.87 | $4.87 | +$0 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $2.99 | $2.91 | -$0.09 | 51% 265-255 (520) |
Invested
$224.89
Value
$225.29
PnL
+$0.4
Record
52%
5322-4827 (10149)
Invested
$184.83
Value
$183.92
PnL
-$0.91
Record
—
0-12 (12)
Invested
$126
Value
$126
PnL
+$0
Record
10%
25-236 (261)
Invested
$124.21
Value
$124.21
PnL
+$0
Record
26%
360-1007 (1367)
Invested
$124.21
Value
$124.21
PnL
+$0
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
Invested
$124.21
Value
$124.21
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
511-1182 (1693)
Invested
$83.49
Value
$83.49
PnL
+$0
Record
28%
367-935 (1302)
Invested
$76.36
Value
$76.05
PnL
-$0.3
Record
41%
3010-4414 (7424)
Invested
$49.8
Value
$50.4
PnL
+$0.6
Record
39%
1397-2152 (3549)
Invested
$42
Value
$42
PnL
+$0
Record
44%
1068-1376 (2444)
Invested
$42
Value
$42
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
499-1317 (1816)
Invested
$25.2
Value
$25.2
PnL
+$0
Record
5%
16-322 (338)
Invested
$25.2
Value
$25.2
PnL
+$0
Record
—
0-13 (13)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$4.87
Value
$4.87
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$2.99
Value
$2.91
PnL
-$0.09
Record
51%
265-255 (520)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.