Will Spirit Win the BLAST Rivals Hong Kong 2026?

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 78¢ · $208 held · ends Nov 17

Yes23¢No77¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$207.99

Combined PnL

-$10.37

Smart Money Entry

79¢ → 77.5¢

-2% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 11 top traders (100%)11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$207.99

Total Shares274

Combined PnL-$10.37

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 82¢	$59.86	$55.65	-$4.22	41% 3102-4461 (7563)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 79.2¢	$57.77	$54.71	-$3.06	51% 4602-4505 (9107)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 77.5¢	$46.5	$45	-$1.5	25% 847-2482 (3329)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 75.5¢	$24.48	$24.32	-$0.17	53% 1602-1414 (3016)
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 79¢	$7.65	$7.26	-$0.39	44% 1081-1380 (2461)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 82¢	$6.05	$5.54	-$0.52	— 2-14 (16)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 81¢	$4.18	$3.87	-$0.31	42% 341-477 (818)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 76¢	$3.91	$3.86	-$0.05	41% 347-498 (845)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 75¢	$3.76	$3.76	+$0	47% 309-342 (651)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 77¢	$3.35	$3.26	-$0.09	30% 2654-6198 (8852)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 82¢	$0.84	$0.77	-$0.07	41% 662-968 (1630)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$59.86

Value

$55.65

PnL

-$4.22

Record

41%

3102-4461 (7563)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$57.77

Value

$54.71

PnL

-$3.06

Record

51%

4602-4505 (9107)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$46.5

Value

$45

PnL

-$1.5

Record

25%

847-2482 (3329)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$24.48

Value

$24.32

PnL

-$0.17

Record

53%

1602-1414 (3016)

alex20011<$100

Invested

$7.65

Value

$7.26

PnL

-$0.39

Record

44%

1081-1380 (2461)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$6.05

Value

$5.54

PnL

-$0.52

Record

—

2-14 (16)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$4.18

Value

$3.87

PnL

-$0.31

Record

42%

341-477 (818)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$3.91

Value

$3.86

PnL

-$0.05

Record

41%

347-498 (845)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$3.76

Value

$3.76

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

309-342 (651)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$3.35

Value

$3.26

PnL

-$0.09

Record

30%

2654-6198 (8852)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$0.84

Value

$0.77

PnL

-$0.07

Record

41%

662-968 (1630)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 11 top traders (100%)11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.