Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 16 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?

16 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $2 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.77

Combined PnL

-$113.88

Smart Money Entry

3.3¢ → 0.1¢

-98% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

16 of 16 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes16 traders

Total Value$1.77

Total Shares3,542

Combined PnL-$113.88

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 44%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 100% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.5	$0.5	+$0	27% 948-2550 (3498)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$25.39	$0.28	-$25.11	40% 3240-4885 (8125)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$19.83	$0.22	-$19.61	30% 2950-6939 (9889)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$15.32	$0.17	-$15.15	37% 3458-5944 (9402)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$13.13	$0.14	-$12.99	29% 892-2174 (3066)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$8.5	$0.09	-$8.41	44% 1109-1423 (2532)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$7.8	$0.09	-$7.72	5% 4-72 (76)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$6.52	$0.07	-$6.45	47% 4818-5478 (10296)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$4.91	$0.05	-$4.86	3% 2-63 (65)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$4	$0.04	-$3.96	23% 512-1699 (2211)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$2.35	$0.03	-$2.32	39% 1399-2233 (3632)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$2.27	$0.03	-$2.25	28% 532-1393 (1925)
PO pollo07CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$2.27	$0.03	-$2.25	27% 504-1333 (1837)
AK akrollCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$2.27	$0.03	-$2.25	28% 527-1384 (1911)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$0.29	$0	-$0.29	34% 523-997 (1520)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$0.27	$0	-$0.27	63% 463-277 (740)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.5

Value

$0.5

PnL

+$0

Record

27%

948-2550 (3498)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.39

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$25.11

Record

40%

3240-4885 (8125)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.83

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$19.61

Record

30%

2950-6939 (9889)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.32

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$15.15

Record

37%

3458-5944 (9402)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.13

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$12.99

Record

29%

892-2174 (3066)

alex20011CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.5

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$8.41

Record

44%

1109-1423 (2532)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.8

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$7.72

Record

4-72 (76)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.52

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$6.45

Record

47%

4818-5478 (10296)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.91

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$4.86

Record

2-63 (65)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$3.96

Record

23%

512-1699 (2211)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.35

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$2.32

Record

39%

1399-2233 (3632)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.27

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$2.25

Record

28%

532-1393 (1925)

pollo07CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.27

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$2.25

Record

27%

504-1333 (1837)

akrollCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.27

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$2.25

Record

28%

527-1384 (1911)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.29

Value

PnL

-$0.29

Record

34%

523-997 (1520)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.27

Value

PnL

-$0.27

Record

63%

463-277 (740)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

16 of 16 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 44%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 100% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.