Will Spain win 2026-27 Nations League Group A3?

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 100¢ · $685 held · ends Dec 2

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Dec 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$685.29

Combined PnL

$114.15

Smart Money Entry

49.9¢ → 100¢

+100% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$586.35

Total Shares726

Combined PnL+$210.95

Yes4 traders

Total Value$98.93

Total Shares354

Combined PnL-$96.8

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-60 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 30.8¢	$139.18	$356.53	+$217.35	53% 7602-6693 (14295)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 74¢	$69.07	$60.64	-$8.44	40% 280-415 (695)
PV pvc975<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$49.92	$49.95	+$0.02	98% 542-12 (554)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 77¢	$92.4	$33.6	-$58.8	29% 348-840 (1188)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$17.93	$30.16	+$12.22	23% 816-2733 (3549)
dips.CTR<$100	Yesavg 51.7¢	$84.72	$26	-$58.72	48% 1342-1442 (2784)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 74.2¢	$19.41	$20.67	+$1.26	58% 914-665 (1579)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 94.7¢	$56.02	$19.96	-$3.23	42% 5253-7309 (12562)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 75¢	$15.14	$15.94	+$0.81	48% 1294-1427 (2721)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 75¢	$15.12	$15.93	+$0.81	50% 975-969 (1944)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 75¢	$15.04	$15.84	+$0.8	56% 888-693 (1581)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 75¢	$15.02	$15.82	+$0.8	50% 910-924 (1834)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 75¢	$14.32	$15.08	+$0.76	52% 994-930 (1924)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.68	$9.18	+$8.5	14% 110-653 (763)

cigarettes

Invested

$139.18

Value

$356.53

PnL

+$217.35

Record

53%

7602-6693 (14295)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$69.07

Value

$60.64

PnL

-$8.44

Record

40%

280-415 (695)

pvc975<$100

Invested

$49.92

Value

$49.95

PnL

+$0.02

Record

98%

542-12 (554)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$92.4

Value

$33.6

PnL

-$58.8

Record

29%

348-840 (1188)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.93

Value

$30.16

PnL

+$12.22

Record

23%

816-2733 (3549)

dips.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$84.72

Value

$26

PnL

-$58.72

Record

48%

1342-1442 (2784)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$19.41

Value

$20.67

PnL

+$1.26

Record

58%

914-665 (1579)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$56.02

Value

$19.96

PnL

-$3.23

Record

42%

5253-7309 (12562)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$15.14

Value

$15.94

PnL

+$0.81

Record

48%

1294-1427 (2721)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$15.12

Value

$15.93

PnL

+$0.81

Record

50%

975-969 (1944)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$15.04

Value

$15.84

PnL

+$0.8

Record

56%

888-693 (1581)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$15.02

Value

$15.82

PnL

+$0.8

Record

50%

910-924 (1834)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$14.32

Value

$15.08

PnL

+$0.76

Record

52%

994-930 (1924)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.68

Value

$9.18

PnL

+$8.5

Record

14%

110-653 (763)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-60 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.