Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model on December 15, 2026?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $143 held · ends Dec 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Dec 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$142.89

Combined PnL

-$22.39

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$139.86

Total Shares140

Combined PnL+$0.39

Yes6 traders

Total Value$3.03

Total Shares606

Combined PnL-$22.78

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$79.56	$79.92	+$0.36	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.97	+$0	29% 1063-2631 (3694)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.94	$29.97	+$0.03	31% 225-501 (726)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$43.74	$2	-$9.72	39% 3489-5413 (8902)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$40.14	$0.62	-$3.59	45% 4975-6198 (11173)
iutwpfalCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$1	$0.18	-$0.83	— 10-4 (14)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.57	$0.1	-$0.47	8% 9-110 (119)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$16.26	$0.09	-$7.17	18% 838-3822 (4660)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$30.2	$0.05	-$1	29% 3101-7566 (10667)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$79.56

Value

$79.92

PnL

+$0.36

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0

Record

29%

1063-2631 (3694)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$29.94

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0.03

Record

31%

225-501 (726)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.74

Value

PnL

-$9.72

Record

39%

3489-5413 (8902)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.14

Value

$0.62

PnL

-$3.59

Record

45%

4975-6198 (11173)

iutwpfalCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$0.83

Record

—

10-4 (14)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.57

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$0.47

Record

9-110 (119)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.26

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$7.17

Record

18%

838-3822 (4660)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.2

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$1

Record

29%

3101-7566 (10667)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6313.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

6414.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.