Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $17 held · ends Dec 1
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 100%
$16.53
-$140.47
1.4¢ → 0.3¢
-82% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 WojtekCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $12.34 | $11 | -$13.13 | 20% 412-1641 (2053) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $23.15 | $1.94 | -$89.8 | 35% 16906-31245 (48151) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $21.87 | $1.91 | -$19.96 | 25% 180-534 (714) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $15.79 | $1.38 | -$14.4 | 17% 1014-4846 (5860) |
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $2.49 | $0.22 | -$2.28 | 17% 221-1047 (1268) |
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.07 | $0.07 | -$0.9 | 39% 1785-2838 (4623) |
WojtekCTR<$100Invested
$12.34
Value
$11
PnL
-$13.13
Record
20%
412-1641 (2053)
Invested
$23.15
Value
$1.94
PnL
-$89.8
Record
35%
16906-31245 (48151)
Invested
$21.87
Value
$1.91
PnL
-$19.96
Record
25%
180-534 (714)
Invested
$15.79
Value
$1.38
PnL
-$14.4
Record
17%
1014-4846 (5860)
Invested
$2.49
Value
$0.22
PnL
-$2.28
Record
17%
221-1047 (1268)
Invested
$0.07
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$0.9
Record
39%
1785-2838 (4623)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.