Will SpaceXAI be the second-best AI lab at the end of January 2027?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 96¢ · $396 held · ends Feb 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$396.45
$20.28
88¢ → 96.1¢
+9% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
35 35066FE58fe | Noavg 86.3¢ | $302.67 | $337.99 | +$35.32 | 42% 627-850 (1477) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $49.2 | $47.5 | -$1.7 | 53% 8926-7971 (16897) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $9.18 | $8.81 | -$0.37 | 49% 9048-9543 (18591) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $4.2 | $1.2 | -$3 | 23% 178-602 (780) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $10.92 | $0.95 | -$9.98 | 17% 402-1972 (2374) |
Invested
$302.67
Value
$337.99
PnL
+$35.32
Record
42%
627-850 (1477)
Invested
$49.2
Value
$47.5
PnL
-$1.7
Record
53%
8926-7971 (16897)
Invested
$9.18
Value
$8.81
PnL
-$0.37
Record
49%
9048-9543 (18591)
Invested
$4.2
Value
$1.2
PnL
-$3
Record
23%
178-602 (780)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$10.92
Value
$0.95
PnL
-$9.98
Record
17%
402-1972 (2374)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.