Will SpaceXAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 97¢ · $101 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$101
-$1.5
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $19.86 | $19.7 | -$0.16 | 48% 3423-3707 (7130) |
PO pollo07<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $19.86 | $19.7 | -$0.16 | 31% 314-685 (999) |
AK akroll<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $19.86 | $19.7 | -$0.16 | 32% 320-687 (1007) |
KL klli27<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $19.86 | $19.7 | -$0.16 | 31% 297-658 (955) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $19.86 | $19.7 | -$0.16 | 30% 266-615 (881) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $2.86 | $2.16 | -$0.7 | 36% 15021-27071 (42092) |
Invested
$19.86
Value
$19.7
PnL
-$0.16
Record
48%
3423-3707 (7130)
Invested
$19.86
Value
$19.7
PnL
-$0.16
Record
31%
314-685 (999)
Invested
$19.86
Value
$19.7
PnL
-$0.16
Record
32%
320-687 (1007)
Invested
$19.86
Value
$19.7
PnL
-$0.16
Record
31%
297-658 (955)
Invested
$19.86
Value
$19.7
PnL
-$0.16
Record
30%
266-615 (881)
Invested
$2.86
Value
$2.16
PnL
-$0.7
Record
36%
15021-27071 (42092)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.