Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 77¢ · $92 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$92.17
$20.54
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22.3¢ | $43.36 | $49.19 | +$5.83 | 40% 3001-4411 (7412) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 34.8¢ | $10.2 | $18.71 | +$8.51 | 35% 2865-5318 (8183) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 28.1¢ | $5.62 | $12.77 | +$7.15 | 50% 4483-4431 (8914) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28.5¢ | $11.4 | $8.9 | -$2.5 | 52% 5288-4799 (10087) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 25.9¢ | $1.06 | $2.61 | +$1.55 | 28% 2414-6144 (8558) |
Invested
$43.36
Value
$49.19
PnL
+$5.83
Record
40%
3001-4411 (7412)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$10.2
Value
$18.71
PnL
+$8.51
Record
35%
2865-5318 (8183)
balthazar<$100Invested
$5.62
Value
$12.77
PnL
+$7.15
Record
50%
4483-4431 (8914)
Invested
$11.4
Value
$8.9
PnL
-$2.5
Record
52%
5288-4799 (10087)
Invested
$1.06
Value
$2.61
PnL
+$1.55
Record
28%
2414-6144 (8558)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.