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viniiCTR<$100YesYes
balthazar<$100NoYesYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $1.50T and $1.75T at the end of October 2026?
Resolved No. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$6.26
Smart Money Signal
Yes
4 of 5 top traders (80%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares111
Combined PnL-$6.26
No1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 80%No — 20%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
viniiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.6¢ | $3.26 | — | -$3.26 | 74% 2724-977 (3701) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.3¢ | $3 | — | -$3 | — 0-1 (1) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 21044-13396 (34440) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 32% 4419-9499 (13918) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | — | — | +$0 | 36% 15393-27456 (42849) |
viniiCTR<$100Invested
$3.26
Value
—
PnL
-$3.26
Record
74%
2724-977 (3701)
0X
0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100Invested
$3
Value
—
PnL
-$3
Record
—
0-1 (1)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
21044-13396 (34440)
0X
0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
4419-9499 (13918)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
15393-27456 (42849)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x9961a2fe...5fb5a7
Slug
will-space-exploration-technologies-market-capitalization-be-between-1pt50t-and-1pt75t-at-the-end-of-october-2026