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Yes
balthazar<$100NoNoYes
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Yes
IstarothCTR<$100YesYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be at least $2.25T at the end of October 2026?
Resolved No. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$2.76
Smart Money Signal
Yes
5 of 7 top traders (71%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares16
Combined PnL-$2.76
No2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 71%No — 29%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.3¢ | $2.76 | — | -$2.76 | 52% 332-304 (636) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 21044-13396 (34440) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 6516-5727 (12243) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | — | — | +$0 | 32% 4419-9499 (13918) |
LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 18% 535-2427 (2962) |
IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 20% 308-1212 (1520) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 48¢ | — | — | +$0 | 36% 15393-27456 (42849) |
0X
0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100Invested
$2.76
Value
—
PnL
-$2.76
Record
52%
332-304 (636)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
21044-13396 (34440)
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6516-5727 (12243)
0X
0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
4419-9499 (13918)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
535-2427 (2962)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
20%
308-1212 (1520)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
15393-27456 (42849)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xb41276b5...77d0d3
Slug
will-space-exploration-technologies-market-capitalization-be-at-least-2pt25t-at-the-end-of-october-2026