Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.4% and 2.6%?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 88¢ · $366 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$366.3
-$8.64
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 75.1¢ | $361.09 | $346.81 | +$21.72 | 35% 14744-26906 (41650) |
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.4¢ | $29.94 | $9.96 | -$19.98 | — 2-1 (3) |
 FrozenParasiteCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.3¢ | $15.27 | $5.11 | -$10.16 | 55% 444-364 (808) |
CR cry.eth2CTR<$100 | Yes | $3.8 | $3.8 | +$3.8 | 40% 9437-14102 (23539) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28.5¢ | $4.65 | $0.62 | -$4.03 | 77% 11126-3391 (14517) |
Invested
$361.09
Value
$346.81
PnL
+$21.72
Record
35%
14744-26906 (41650)
Invested
$29.94
Value
$9.96
PnL
-$19.98
Record
—
2-1 (3)
FrozenParasiteCTR<$100Invested
$15.27
Value
$5.11
PnL
-$10.16
Record
55%
444-364 (808)
Invested
$3.8
Value
$3.8
PnL
+$3.8
Record
40%
9437-14102 (23539)
Invested
$4.65
Value
$0.62
PnL
-$4.03
Record
77%
11126-3391 (14517)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.