Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (55%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.0%?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 46¢ · $912 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$912
$67.97
61.8¢ → 45.5¢
-26% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 61.5¢ | $944.78 | $812.32 | +$73.58 | 36% 15021-27071 (42092) |
SN SnapElectionAvoider<$100 | Yesavg 26.8¢ | $50.9 | $53.96 | +$3.06 | 53% 1107-988 (2095) |
74 0x7495...7fcfCTR<$100 | Noavg 63.3¢ | $25.14 | $24.21 | -$0.93 | — |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Noavg 71.9¢ | $42.32 | $17.93 | -$3.28 | 24% 285-919 (1204) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Yesavg 50.7¢ | $15.15 | $3.1 | -$4.46 | 77% 11143-3403 (14546) |
Invested
$944.78
Value
$812.32
PnL
+$73.58
Record
36%
15021-27071 (42092)
Invested
$50.9
Value
$53.96
PnL
+$3.06
Record
53%
1107-988 (2095)
Invested
$25.14
Value
$24.21
PnL
-$0.93
Record
—
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$42.32
Value
$17.93
PnL
-$3.28
Record
24%
285-919 (1204)
Invested
$15.15
Value
$3.1
PnL
-$4.46
Record
77%
11143-3403 (14546)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.