Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will South Korea win Group E at the 2027 AFC Asian Cup?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 1.3¢ · $157 held · ends Feb 6, 2027

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Sat, Feb 6, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$156.86

Combined PnL

$-1.0K

Smart Money Entry

33.1¢ → 1.3¢

-96% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$96.08

Total Shares650

Combined PnL$-1.1K

No3 traders

Total Value$60.79

Total Shares61

Combined PnL+$47.48

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothCTR<$100	Yesavg 67.3¢	$71.9	$70.05	-$1.47	15% 498-2922 (3420)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 21.8¢	$9.14	$41.58	+$32.44	44% 6509-8177 (14686)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 76¢	$35.2	$20.23	-$14.97	35% 18318-34086 (52404)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 21¢	$2.1	$9.9	+$7.8	42% 7033-9821 (16854)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 22¢	$2.07	$9.31	+$7.24	77% 12654-3874 (16528)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$7.06	$3.79	-$3.27	20% 2607-10331 (12938)
ND ndb1CTR	Yesavg 70¢	$1.1K	$2.01	$-1.1K	65% 949-501 (1450)

IstarothCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$71.9

Value

$70.05

PnL

-$1.47

Record

15%

498-2922 (3420)

korda77<$100

Invested

$9.14

Value

$41.58

PnL

+$32.44

Record

44%

6509-8177 (14686)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.2

Value

$20.23

PnL

-$14.97

Record

35%

18318-34086 (52404)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$2.1

Value

$9.9

PnL

+$7.8

Record

42%

7033-9821 (16854)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$2.07

Value

$9.31

PnL

+$7.24

Record

77%

12654-3874 (16528)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.06

Value

$3.79

PnL

-$3.27

Record

20%

2607-10331 (12938)

ndb1CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,073.14

Value

$2.01

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

65%

949-501 (1450)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.4%

1.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4137.34

Max Loss

-$100.00

4237.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.