Will South Korea win Eurovision Asia 2026?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 98¢ · $226 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$225.67
-$4.26
98.3¢ → 98.1¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 58%
Freshness
Mature
20h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $93.72 | $94.68 | +$0.96 | 53% 6618-5816 (12434) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $29.35 | $29.67 | +$0.32 | 29% 1059-2631 (3690) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $29.67 | $29.67 | -$0 | 29% 185-443 (628) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $29.65 | $29.67 | +$0.02 | 27% 197-540 (737) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $24.73 | $24.73 | +$0 | 31% 221-498 (719) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $15.49 | $9.92 | -$5.58 | 39% 3479-5356 (8835) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $4.94 | $4.95 | +$0 | 37% 165-281 (446) |
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $2.37 | $2.39 | +$0.02 | 8% 13-143 (156) |
Invested
$93.72
Value
$94.68
PnL
+$0.96
Record
53%
6618-5816 (12434)
Invested
$29.35
Value
$29.67
PnL
+$0.32
Record
29%
1059-2631 (3690)
Invested
$29.67
Value
$29.67
PnL
-$0
Record
29%
185-443 (628)
Invested
$29.65
Value
$29.67
PnL
+$0.02
Record
27%
197-540 (737)
Invested
$24.73
Value
$24.73
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
221-498 (719)
Invested
$15.49
Value
$9.92
PnL
-$5.58
Record
39%
3479-5356 (8835)
Invested
$4.94
Value
$4.95
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
165-281 (446)
Invested
$2.37
Value
$2.39
PnL
+$0.02
Record
8%
13-143 (156)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.