Will South Carolina be the closest Senate race in 2026?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 99¢ · $499 held · ended Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$499.49

Combined PnL

-$14.08

Smart Money Entry

89.5¢ → 99.4¢

+11% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$486.45

Total Shares491

Combined PnL+$59

Yes1 trader

Total Value$12.83

Total Shares830

Combined PnL-$73.08

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

43h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Haradwaith	Noavg 87.8¢	$263.45	$265.63	+$33.26	42% 5392-7314 (12706)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 89.4¢	$84.06	$65.28	+$12.38	49% 8836-9340 (18176)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 93.5¢	$60.77	$54.66	+$6.01	77% 12521-3667 (16188)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 87.9¢	$40.57	$45.71	+$5.14	59% 11831-8157 (19988)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 93.6¢	$23.4	$24.75	+$1.35	32% 2511-5383 (7894)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$22.85	$22.78	-$0.07	40% 2175-3220 (5395)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 10.4¢	$232.86	$12.83	-$73.08	35% 18146-33983 (52129)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 82.4¢	$4.71	$5.66	+$0.95	58% 19455-14308 (33763)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$2	$1.98	-$0.02	39% 1084-1679 (2763)

Haradwaith

Invested

$263.45

Value

$265.63

PnL

+$33.26

Record

42%

5392-7314 (12706)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$84.06

Value

$65.28

PnL

+$12.38

Record

49%

8836-9340 (18176)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$60.77

Value

$54.66

PnL

+$6.01

Record

77%

12521-3667 (16188)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$40.57

Value

$45.71

PnL

+$5.14

Record

59%

11831-8157 (19988)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$23.4

Value

$24.75

PnL

+$1.35

Record

32%

2511-5383 (7894)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$22.85

Value

$22.78

PnL

-$0.07

Record

40%

2175-3220 (5395)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$232.86

Value

$12.83

PnL

-$73.08

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$4.71

Value

$5.66

PnL

+$0.95

Record

58%

19455-14308 (33763)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

Value

$1.98

PnL

-$0.02

Record

39%

1084-1679 (2763)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

43h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.