Will South African inflation be greater than 5.0% in 2026?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 55¢ · $965 held · ends Jan 21, 2027

Yes45¢No55¢Ends Thu, Jan 21, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$965.49

Combined PnL

$154.07

Smart Money Entry

39.8¢ → 54.5¢

+37% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes45%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$656.29

Total Shares1,203

Combined PnL+$167.13

Yes4 traders

Total Value$74.61

Total Shares164

Combined PnL-$13.06

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

723h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754	Noavg 39.7¢	$456.09	$625.98	+$169.9	— 4-15 (19)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FARB<$100	Yesavg 60.2¢	$132.74	$118.51	-$6.8	— 1-10 (11)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 60.2¢	$86.17	$65.02	-$21.15
└ No leg	Noavg 39.8¢	$39.03	$53.49	+$14.35
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Yesavg 53.5¢	$106.86	$116.08	+$9.22	40% 2992-4404 (7396)
└ No leg	Noavg 39¢	$46.05	$64.4	+$18.35
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 53.5¢	$60.81	$51.68	-$9.13
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 54.7¢	$39.28	$32.64	-$6.64	52% 5263-4776 (10039)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 45.1¢	$45.1	$27.27	+$1.39	66% 4044-2048 (6092)
HoshinoAI	Noavg 40.6¢	$143.72	$22.7	-$4	— 10-8 (18)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$19.01	$13.71	-$5.29	— 1-9 (10)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 45.7¢	$6.37	$7.6	+$1.23	4% 15-322 (337)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 57.7¢	$29.79	$0.98	-$2.52	— 0-12 (12)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754

Invested

$456.09

Value

$625.98

PnL

+$169.9

Record

—

4-15 (19)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$132.74

Value

$118.51

PnL

-$6.8

Record

—

1-10 (11)

Both legs:

Yes$86.1760.2¢-$21.15

No$39.0339.8¢+$14.35

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$106.86

Value

$116.08

PnL

+$9.22

Record

40%

2992-4404 (7396)

Both legs:

Invested

$39.28

Value

$32.64

PnL

-$6.64

Record

52%

5263-4776 (10039)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.1

Value

$27.27

PnL

+$1.39

Record

66%

4044-2048 (6092)

HoshinoAI

Invested

$143.72

Value

$22.7

PnL

-$4

Record

—

10-8 (18)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.01

Value

$13.71

PnL

-$5.29

Record

—

1-9 (10)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$6.37

Value

$7.6

PnL

+$1.23

Record

15-322 (337)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.79

Value

$0.98

PnL

-$2.52

Record

—

0-12 (12)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

723h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.8%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.