Will South African inflation be between 4.7% and 5.0% in 2026?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 82¢ · $644 held · ends Jan 21, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$643.75
$27.55
87.9¢ → 82.3¢
-6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
504h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 88.3¢ | $412.74 | $396.3 | -$13.06 | 30% 277-652 (929) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $88.25 | $104.05 | +$15.8 | 35% 14704-26888 (41592) |
 FrozenParasiteCTR<$100 | Yes | $52.83 | $52.83 | -$14.83 | 55% 444-364 (808) |
 0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.6¢ | $27.94 | $50.99 | +$23.05 | 49% 1812-1893 (3705) |
TY Tysha<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $21.2 | $21.45 | +$0.26 | 73% 8218-3086 (11304) |
 viniiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.8¢ | $1.81 | $18.15 | +$16.33 | 74% 2701-968 (3669) |
IstarothInvested
$412.74
Value
$396.3
PnL
-$13.06
Record
30%
277-652 (929)
Invested
$88.25
Value
$104.05
PnL
+$15.8
Record
35%
14704-26888 (41592)
FrozenParasiteCTR<$100Invested
$52.83
Value
$52.83
PnL
-$14.83
Record
55%
444-364 (808)
0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100Invested
$27.94
Value
$50.99
PnL
+$23.05
Record
49%
1812-1893 (3705)
Invested
$21.2
Value
$21.45
PnL
+$0.26
Record
73%
8218-3086 (11304)
viniiCTR<$100Invested
$1.81
Value
$18.15
PnL
+$16.33
Record
74%
2701-968 (3669)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.