Will South African inflation be between 4.4% and 4.7% in 2026?

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (36%) · No at 84¢ · $754 held · ends Jan 21, 2027

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Thu, Jan 21, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 36%

Total Value

$754.18

Combined PnL

-$321.46

Smart Money Entry

85.6¢ → 83.6¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$300.05

Total Shares2,222

Combined PnL-$38.14

No4 traders

Total Value$454.13

Total Shares544

Combined PnL-$283.32

Yes — 64%No — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR	Yesavg 10.3¢	$149.15	$237.09	+$94.37	57% 21-16 (37)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F	Noavg 89.8¢	$293.25	$174.62	-$46.33	22% 1869-6674 (8543)
Haradwaith	Noavg 82.7¢	$642.78	$140.87	-$35.24	57% 41574-31333 (72907)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 82.6¢	$492.6	$117.81	-$125.73	32% 21967-45855 (67822)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR	Yesavg 34.1¢	$24	$47.06	-$133.95	49% 22892-23745 (46637)
WA WarriorH	Noavg 87.9¢	$200.22	$20.84	-$76.03	16% 1419-7677 (9096)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$4.45	$4.63	+$0.42	30% 35523-84044 (119567)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$5.29	$4.57	-$0.72	30% 2958-6851 (9809)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$5.4	$4.46	+$0.81	52% 168-153 (321)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.2¢	$1.34	$1.84	+$0.49	45% 32135-39280 (71415)
0X 0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.15	$0.41	+$0.43	44% 167-213 (380)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR

Yes

Invested

$149.15

Value

$237.09

PnL

+$94.37

Record

57%

21-16 (37)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F

Invested

$293.25

Value

$174.62

PnL

-$46.33

Record

22%

1869-6674 (8543)

Haradwaith

Invested

$642.78

Value

$140.87

PnL

-$35.24

Record

57%

41574-31333 (72907)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$492.6

Value

$117.81

PnL

-$125.73

Record

32%

21967-45855 (67822)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR

Yes

Invested

$24

Value

$47.06

PnL

-$133.95

Record

49%

22892-23745 (46637)

WarriorH

Invested

$200.22

Value

$20.84

PnL

-$76.03

Record

16%

1419-7677 (9096)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.45

Value

$4.63

PnL

+$0.42

Record

30%

35523-84044 (119567)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.29

Value

$4.57

PnL

-$0.72

Record

30%

2958-6851 (9809)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.4

Value

$4.46

PnL

+$0.81

Record

52%

168-153 (321)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.34

Value

$1.84

PnL

+$0.49

Record

45%

32135-39280 (71415)

0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.41

PnL

+$0.43

Record

44%

167-213 (380)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.3%

83.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.30

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.