Will Sóstenes Cavalcante be the next President of Brazil's Chamber of Deputies?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 96¢ · $172 held · ends Mar 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$171.97
-$9.05
97.8¢ → 96.4¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Mature
20h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $74.25 | $72.3 | -$1.95 | 40% 1457-2158 (3615) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 95.7¢ | $57.4 | $57.84 | +$0.44 | 53% 5689-5114 (10803) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $19.8 | $19.28 | -$0.52 | 31% 2735-6214 (8949) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $17.03 | $16.63 | -$0.4 | 79% 394-105 (499) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.1¢ | $12.09 | $5.38 | -$6.71 | 41% 3126-4493 (7619) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $0.45 | $0.54 | +$0.09 | 51% 40-38 (78) |
Invested
$74.25
Value
$72.3
PnL
-$1.95
Record
40%
1457-2158 (3615)
Invested
$57.4
Value
$57.84
PnL
+$0.44
Record
53%
5689-5114 (10803)
Invested
$19.8
Value
$19.28
PnL
-$0.52
Record
31%
2735-6214 (8949)
Invested
$17.03
Value
$16.63
PnL
-$0.4
Record
79%
394-105 (499)
Invested
$12.09
Value
$5.38
PnL
-$6.71
Record
41%
3126-4493 (7619)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$0.45
Value
$0.54
PnL
+$0.09
Record
51%
40-38 (78)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.