Will Solana dip to $90 by December 31, 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 81¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$4.4K
$1.1K
59.4¢ → 81¢
+36% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7 | Yesavg 59.6¢ | $3.1K | $4.3K | +$1.1K | 46% 466-545 (1011) |
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR | Noavg 40¢ | $200 | $94.05 | -$86.63 | 53% 238-211 (449) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Yesavg 42.6¢ | $12.49 | $36.55 | +$9.16 | 46% 6086-7026 (13112) |
AL Albert 1953<$100 | Yesavg 60¢ | $16.52 | $22.3 | +$5.78 | 50% 1096-1102 (2198) |
TO Tokor<$100 | Yesavg 72¢ | $7.2 | $8.1 | +$0.9 | 62% 815-506 (1321) |
Invested
$3,129.28
Value
$4.3K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
46%
466-545 (1011)
Invested
$200
Value
$94.05
PnL
-$86.63
Record
53%
238-211 (449)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$12.49
Value
$36.55
PnL
+$9.16
Record
46%
6086-7026 (13112)
Invested
$16.52
Value
$22.3
PnL
+$5.78
Record
50%
1096-1102 (2198)
Invested
$7.2
Value
$8.1
PnL
+$0.9
Record
62%
815-506 (1321)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.