Will Solana dip to $80 by December 31, 2026?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 66¢ · $475 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes34¢No66¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$475.01

Combined PnL

-$27.87

Smart Money Entry

71.7¢ → 66¢

-8% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$254.54

Total Shares385

Combined PnL-$22.02

Yes2 traders

Total Value$23.8

Total Shares70

Combined PnL-$5.85

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (3 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4	Noavg 72¢	$268.07	$245.69	-$22.39	54% 738-625 (1363)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Yesavg 28.4¢	$233.77	$196.67	+$31.11	36% 14340-25707 (40047)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 28.4¢	$95.97	$114.94	+$33.72
└ No leg	Noavg 61.7¢	$76.38	$81.73	-$2.61
AL Albert 1953CTR<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$25	$17	-$8.25	50% 1063-1073 (2136)
DI Dimpled-Foal<$100	Noavg 63¢	$8.55	$8.85	+$0.37	54% 194-168 (362)
TO TokorCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$4.4	$6.8	+$2.4	64% 738-423 (1161)

x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4

Invested

$268.07

Value

$245.69

PnL

-$22.39

Record

54%

738-625 (1363)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$233.77

Value

$196.67

PnL

+$31.11

Record

36%

14340-25707 (40047)

Both legs:

Yes$95.9728.4¢+$33.72

No$76.3861.7¢-$2.61

Albert 1953CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25

Value

$17

PnL

-$8.25

Record

50%

1063-1073 (2136)

Dimpled-Foal<$100

Invested

$8.55

Value

$8.85

PnL

+$0.37

Record

54%

194-168 (362)

TokorCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.4

Value

$6.8

PnL

+$2.4

Record

64%

738-423 (1161)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (3 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.5%

66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.88

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.