Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Slovan Bratislava finish first in UCL league phase?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Feb 28, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Feb 28, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.6

Combined PnL

-$21.18

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$0.6

Total Shares923

Combined PnL-$21.18

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

82h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$8.13	$0.17	-$7.96	47% 47397-53674 (101071)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$6.83	$0.14	-$6.69	37% 16933-29287 (46220)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0.36	$0.12	-$2.68	16% 1406-7535 (8941)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yes	$0.09	$0.09	-$2.1	20% 560-2178 (2738)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.19	$0.02	-$0.44	22% 3328-11802 (15130)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.12	$0.02	-$0.4	45% 31906-39016 (70922)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yes	$0.02	$0.02	-$0.4	32% 21135-45368 (66503)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.07	$0.02	-$0.06	57% 41422-31202 (72624)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$0.46	$0.01	-$0.45	23% 2589-8836 (11425)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.13

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$7.96

Record

47%

47397-53674 (101071)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.83

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$6.69

Record

37%

16933-29287 (46220)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.36

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$2.68

Record

16%

1406-7535 (8941)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.09

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$2.1

Record

20%

560-2178 (2738)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.19

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.44

Record

22%

3328-11802 (15130)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.12

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.4

Record

45%

31906-39016 (70922)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.4

Record

32%

21135-45368 (66503)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.06

Record

57%

41422-31202 (72624)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.46

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.45

Record

23%

2589-8836 (11425)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

82h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.