Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Skip Schumaker win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year?

6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $0 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.36

Combined PnL

-$31.71

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0.36

Total Shares718

Combined PnL-$31.71

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yes	$0.3	$0.3	-$27.72	61% 15629-9929 (25558)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.01	$0.02	-$2.13	35% 17549-32799 (50348)
CO cowcatCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$0.54	$0.02	-$0.52	53% 1588-1422 (3010)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.18	$0.01	-$0.17	60% 11480-7595 (19075)
KL klli27CTR<$100	Yes	$0.01	$0.01	-$0.74	29% 357-873 (1230)
AK akrollCTR<$100	Yes	$0	$0	-$0.42	29% 373-898 (1271)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$27.72

Record

61%

15629-9929 (25558)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.13

Record

35%

17549-32799 (50348)

cowcatCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.54

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.52

Record

53%

1588-1422 (3010)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.17

Record

60%

11480-7595 (19075)

klli27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.74

Record

29%

357-873 (1230)

akrollCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

-$0.42

Record

29%

373-898 (1271)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.