Will "Sing 2" be the top global Netflix movie this week?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $274 held · ends Nov 18

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$274.1

Combined PnL

-$14.04

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 99.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$272.42

Total Shares274

Combined PnL-$0.95

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.68

Total Shares336

Combined PnL-$13.09

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR graynotebook19	Noavg 99.9¢	$124.88	$124.38	-$0.5	28% 1108-2781 (3889)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$74.78	$74.63	-$0.16	38% 323-524 (847)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$30.4	$30.28	-$0.12	53% 7499-6626 (14125)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.85	-$0.12	31% 1127-2476 (3603)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$8.21	$8.18	-$0.03	35% 358-677 (1035)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.13	$5.11	-$0.02	52% 959-896 (1855)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$10.73	$1.23	-$9.5	38% 3822-6251 (10073)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$3.65	$0.42	-$3.23	17% 98-476 (574)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$5.17	$0.02	-$0.36	35% 3914-7277 (11191)

graynotebook19

Invested

$124.88

Value

$124.38

PnL

-$0.5

Record

28%

1108-2781 (3889)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$74.78

Value

$74.63

PnL

-$0.16

Record

38%

323-524 (847)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$30.4

Value

$30.28

PnL

-$0.12

Record

53%

7499-6626 (14125)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.85

PnL

-$0.12

Record

31%

1127-2476 (3603)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$8.21

Value

$8.18

PnL

-$0.03

Record

35%

358-677 (1035)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.13

Value

$5.11

PnL

-$0.02

Record

52%

959-896 (1855)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.73

Value

$1.23

PnL

-$9.5

Record

38%

3822-6251 (10073)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.65

Value

$0.42

PnL

-$3.23

Record

17%

98-476 (574)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.17

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.36

Record

35%

3914-7277 (11191)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.